Exposing Hillary So She Won't Get Elected

Here’s Where Bernie Has To Win To Throw Hillary Off The Rails

Super Tuesday could either be the nail in the coffin for Bernie Sanders or the beginning of the undoing of Hillary Clinton.

Five states are voting today – North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, Missouri and Illinois.

By far, Illinois is the state that if Bernie won would completely terrify Hillary. She’s leading in the polls, but not that much. A Sanders win would be a race-altering upset. Logistically, however, without a big win, it won’t affect the delegate count much.

Missouri and Ohio are must-wins for Bernie if he plans to say in the race, otherwise, he simply can’t win the delegate count.

In Florida and North Carolina, Clinton is heavily favored to win because those states’ demographics more closely match the states she has already won – more African Americans and other minorities. Vox reports:

Of the five states voting on Tuesday, Illinois has the most potential to dramatically transform what we know about the campaign.

Sanders could lose in Florida and North Carolina and still feel good about his path to the nomination. Clinton could lose in Missouri and Ohio and wake up on Wednesday about as confident as she was the day before.

Illinois is different. A come-from-behind win for Sanders there would really tell us something new about his strength, much as Michigan was the first sign of Sanders’s appeal in the Rust Belt.

“If Sanders wins Illinois, we’re in a new race,” said Richard Berg-Andersson, who tracks delegate math at the Green Papers. “Wow, that would be a big story.”

Of course, a Sanders upset in North Carolina or Florida — where Clinton has dominated the polls — would be dramatic as well.

But it’s worth focusing on Illinois, because that’s where it looks like Sanders may actually have a real shot. One CBS poll put him up by 2 points this week, and Politico reports that he’s been savvily turning the race into something of a referendum on Chicago Mayor (and Clinton ally) Rahm Emanuel.

A loss in Illinois would weaken Clinton’s frontrunner status for other reasons as well. The state will likely have the most black voters of the five states voting today, Clinton was raised in the suburbs of Chicago, and downstate Illinois looks much like Clinton’s stronghold in the South, according to Berg-Andersson.